Tag Archives: imran khushal

A little late but again; why did Donald Trump win?

This question has already been asked and answered all over the world many times in the last couple of days. Different theories have been presented by different people. Thinkers, writers, political analysts and people almost from all walks of life have already tried to make sense of this historical upset they say had happened in the United States presidential election of 2016.

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Why Did Trump Win? By Imran Khushal

But here in Pakistan, Trump’s triumph is being discussed in a different way. Pakistani anchors, politicians, and analysts are mainly concerned about how the Trump’s America will affect the world in general and how it will raise white supremacism, racism, and extremism.

Obviously, a racist, male chauvinist, and white supremacist, the government in world’s super power’s capital can influence many things and change a lot in politics. But what I’m interested in discussing is why did Donald J. Trump win the presidency?

The answer is in the phenomenon of globalization. Let’s assume that the Americans didn’t know what’s outside the America. They didn’t know how Hindu extremism is taking roots in India and how Muslim extremism is burning the how Muslim world. Let’s say they didn’t fear the outer world and the outer world where extremists, racists, and chauvinists, are already ruling didn’t influence the American voters. Would they still have elected Donald J. Trump as the next president of the United States of America?

I don’t think so. When we say the “Trump Epidemic” would affect the whole world, we accept that the world is connected. If we are living in a global village with every notorious, warmonger, racist, and wicked person as the head of his family how could we expect the American house to not have one?

Today, socio-political developments in the Europe and the Americas affect peoples in Asia and Africa and similar developments in Asia and Africa affect peoples of Europe and Americas. Unending wars in Afghanistan, instability in Iraq, the crisis in Syria and Yemen, Hindutva in India, Takfeer in Arab, Ku Klux Klan in the Christian world and religious extremism everywhere were the main causes why did Donald J. Trump win the presidency.

Definitely, there were domestic reasons as well which made Trump’s victory possible but the globalization was the main reason. Donald J. Trump repeatedly (ab)used the Muslim and Mexican cards, who reached as a result of globalization. He successfully drew a line between the Americans and non-Americans. He frightened them of Muslim extremism and Mexican crimes. He frightened them of Chinese and every other THEM to create cohesion among the Americans and select him as their president.

And this will no doubt affect us all. It would heat up white supremacism in the Europe and hatred against non-European as well religious nationalism among Muslim, Hindu, and others. With the presidency of Donald J. Trump, a more violent world is waiting for all of us. The future will be more uncertain and unpredictable than it was ever before. Also, the chances of a nuclear warfare under such leadership can’t be ruled out. But it is important to note that there is not only one trump in the United States, they are everywhere in every country and Yes they are prime ministers and presidents.

The Author is an Independent researcher and political analyst. He holds an MPhil International Relations degree and blogs for SAMAA TV, Express News, and Dawn News. His personal blog is Kashmirica.wordpress.com and he can be reached on twitter at @imrankhushaal and on email at imrankhushaalraja@gmail.com

Why Kashmir cannot be an integral part of India?

Kashmirca, Imran Khushal's Blog
Kashmirca, Imran Khushal’s Blog

India claims; Kashmir is its integral part, here’s why Kashmir cannot be an integral part of India? I maintained that: It is for Kashmiris to decide whether Kashmir will become someone’s integral part or otherwise and if they have eyes and ears they can see and hear what Indian minorities are going through under a so-called secular and socialist India run by Hindu extremists and followers of Hindutva. They can see the atrocities of the Indian forces in Nagaland, Assam, Punjab and more vividly in Jammu and Kashmir.

So Kashmiris will not buy a minority status with blood and blood of their ancestors in a country which does not guarantee any fundamental rights for its minorities yet claims to be the world’s largest democracy. Kashmir cannot be an integral part of India for the sake of Kashmiris and let’s say if it becomes an integral part of India it would be anything but not Kashmir. It would not be Kashmir in its historical, cultural, and traditional sense. Click here to read my latest blog post on SAMAA TV

ISIL or the Taliban; who is more lethal?

In this video on TEST TUBE, Trace Dominguez tells us who is a greater threat, ISIL or the Taliban. According to Vocative’s data of killings of both groups he suggests that the Taliban are the greater threat than Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or ISIS.

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If lethality is the ability to kill and just kill than the Taliban are more lethal than the newly emerged ISIL because according to the data, the Taliban are killing, on an average more than 2000 people per month whereas ISIL is way behind and is killing only 200 people per month. If it is about size of the organization even then the Taliban are double in number according to Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) report. And have currently more than 60,000 fighters whereas ISIL, according to CIA’s report, has only 30,000 fighters.

So it’s not only the size of the organization nor the number of killings it is committing in a particular time which decides its lethality but other things also.

In their research, “The Nature of the Beast: Organizational Structures and the Lethality of Terrorist Attacks” Victor Asal and Karl Rethemeyer , assistant professors at Albany State University of New York, tried to answer this question that why are some terrorist organizations so much more deadly than others?

They selected 395 clearly identified terrorist organizations operating throughout the world from 1998 to 2005 for their study and found that 335 out of 395 total, didn’t kill more than ten people and only sixty-eight have killed ten or more people during that period. Indeed, only twenty-eight have killed more than 100 people.

So the question what made these 28 organizations more lethal than others, why they killed so many people, what build their ability to kill more people than others?

Victor Asal and Karl Rethemeyer came up with six hypothesis to find out what enhance the lethality of these organizations.

Hypothesis 1: Holding all else constant: The most lethal terrorist organizations are those motivated by both religion and ethnonationalism. Religiously-motivated organizations are the second most lethal, followed by those motivated by ethnonationalism, followed by all other ideologies.

Hypothesis 2: Organizations with larger memberships are likely to be more lethal.

Hypothesis 3: Organizations with state support are likely to be more lethal.

Hypothesis 4: Older organizations are likely to be more lethal.

Hypothesis 5: Organizations with extensive direct ties to other terrorist organizations are likely to be more lethal.

Hypothesis 6: Organizations that control territory are likely to be more lethal.

Researchers argue that ideology of any organization makes it more or less lethal. They argue that regardless of novelty or oldness, there are two characteristics of an ideology which make it more or less deadly. These are; the ideology’s audience and the ideology’s capacity to clearly and cleanly define an “other.” Religious ideology has the divine audience so they are more deadly because they seek to impress a supernatural audience. Whereas non-religious ideologies, such as leftists, socialists or Marxists, have the earthly audience so they are less lethal. The ideology’s capacity to define “other” is important because when a group defines others it become easy for it to target them.

In their findings, they stated that organizations with strong religious and ethnic components may be the most lethal. A supernatural audience is a driver of organizational lethality, but the confluence of the audience and othering and othering alone cannot be conclusively linked to higher levels of lethality. Organizational age appears to have no effect on lethality, and democracy has no measurable effect on lethality. State sponsorship tends to make organizations more likely to kill, but state sponsorship does not tend to increase the number of people killed by an organization. Control of territory is generally associated with higher levels of killing.

In their conclusion, they stated that we believe the answer is that (1) large organizations, (2) organizations that address supernatural audiences through religious ideologies, (3) organizations with religious-ethnonationalist ideologies – ideologies that define another and play to the supernatural, (4) organizations that build and maintain extensive alliance connections with peers, and (5) organizations that maintain control over territory are the primary actors in this story.

So the Taliban are more lethal because they are a combination of religious and ethnonational ideology.  They are bigger in size and they had the power to capture and govern the territory and they still have territorial control. They build extensive alliances and had enjoyed a connection with Al-Qaeda which boosted their lethality.

Writer is pursuing his MPhil at Iqra University Islamabad and blogs at Kashmirica.wordpress.com go say hello @imrankhushaal

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Will Pakistan Peoples Party rise again?

Many are convinced that Pakistan Peoples Party has gone with the wind, but many others believe it will rise again. Those who are convinced have left its ranks and joined other parties mainly Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf but some also have gone farther and have joined Pakistan Muslim League N. Others who still believe in a miracle have no option but to wait. There is not one group of believers but rather individuals from different groups.

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These groups or camps can be categorized as, the conventional, the ideological and the emotional. The conventional or traditional camp wants to enjoy the same old feudal prestige and so it is clinging with PPP. The ideological camp wants to bring a “socialist revolution” in “Islamic Republic of Pakistan” so it is trying to keep PPP alive because in its view the only “Proletariat’s tradition” in Pakistan is Pakistan Peoples Party. The emotional camp is not clear on what it wants but rather what it feels and it feels one day PPP will rise again and it will shout, “Zinda hai Bhutto Zinda Hai”, (long live Bhutto).

What’s on the surface is pretty obvious and can be concluded as a battle between PPP and its enemies. But who really is an enemy of PPP, when it has compromised on everything from its ideology to the assassinations of its former leaders. Is it someone outside or inside PPP. What’s inside is difficult to see and understand. Different factions have derived power from PPP’s “mighty days” but now it has become a liability an introduction which many don’t want to have.

Miss calculations have a historical relationship with Pakistan Peoples Party on both ends. When Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto the founding chairman of PPP was arrested and later jailed he “miss-calculated” public support for him and waited for them to rush over military’s General Headquarter, but nothing such happened. When his daughter Benazir Bhutto came to Pakistan PPP supporters and voters “miss-calculated” and perceived an end to their miseries. They thought Benazir Bhutto will provide them what Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had promised but could not provide due to his “extra-judicial murder”. But she was assassinated and so does the promise of providing ‘’ROTI, KAPRA, and MAKAN”, (bread, clothing and shelter).

There was another miss-calculation about which many don’t know. It was a perspective from leftists, socialists, and Marxists, who follow Leon Trotsky’s interims policy and are busy in promoting socialist thoughts in Pakistan Peoples Party and workers’ movement, which again in their view is only Pakistan Peoples Party. The saw a revolution, a socialist revolution in Pakistan right after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and declared that there is no existence of Pakistani state. But they confused Pakistani state with the government of that time. So “miss-calculated” a revolution.

Keeping the historical “miss-calculations” in mind, it could be rightly said that those who are seeing PPP’s rise in future are again doing wishful thinking. They are as wrong as Bhutto was when he expected people to overthrow everything to bring him out of his cell. They are as wrong as those innocent people who dreamed Roti, Kapra, and Makan. And as wrong as those “socialists” who gave the perspective of a socialist revolution through Pakistan Peoples Party after Benazir’s assassination.

One important thing which has been neglected while analyzing PPP’s potential rebuild is the reason behind its fall at the first place. This time,  PPP wasn’t divided from the top, it was divided from the bottom. Previously there was no bridge in between so-called center-left and right, between Pakistan Peoples Party standing at center-left and Pakistan Muslim League standing at right and far right, but now there was Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insafe, an NGO turned to political party which got all necessary support and backing and waved from left to right in no time and now has reached far right. But in a short time in its huge swing PTI has won previous feudal lords of PPP, all kind of mafias and also so-called socialists. Even many diehard Jiyalas started believing that PTI is new PPP.

Now the question is still in many circles, will PPP rise again, and if yes, how it will. Some expect Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will act like his grandfather and mother and soon there will be a renaissance of PPP. Others have a much-complicated solution and they believe PPP will rise if it will turn to its basic program which according to them is socialism. But I don’t agree with so called socialists’ blind optimism. I think PPP can’t rise through socialism. As this is no more tradition of working class in this country… but that debate needs a separate blog. Also to opt for a socialist path or to turn to its basic it lacks the will, ability, and leadership. It can rise through the rhetoric of Bhuttoism and under table dealings, like mainstream politics and by injecting a lot really a lot of capital to win feudal, mafias, and Jiyalas back and to create new outlets and stakeholders.

Writer is pursuing his MPhil at Iqra University Islamabad and blogs at Kashmirica.wordpress.com go say hello @imrankhushaal

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